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Covid-19 = SARS-CoV-2 = Coronavirus


SARS = Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome


- Summary 5/15/2020 -

According to the available data (see below), the flu kills fewer people worldwide than AIDS, suicide, and malaria. Covid-19 has killed less than the flu, however, reporting is suspected to be a magnitude or more fewer deaths than actually reported. Assuming the death rate is 2 times the reported amount, then Covid-19 would be killing about the same number of people worldwide as the flu.

Looking at the data from the US which is probably more accurate than world data, Covid-19 has killed right up there with Alzheimer’s and diabetes but has killed 2 times more than the flu. Assuming a large number of non-Covid-19 deaths were reported as Covid-19 deaths and reducing the reported number by 50% makes Covid-19 at least as lethal as the flu.

Therefore, I am postulating that Covid-19 is at least as lethal as the flu and probably more. If that is the case and Covid-19 does not go away, we could have 60,000 people dying from the flu and 60,000+ people dying from Covid-19 each year (120,000+ dead / year). That would put us on par with deaths from cardiovascular diseases, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes. Not worth destroying the world economy over. I think there is also a strong possibility that cases of both Covid-19, the flu, and probably the cold will be significantly less that expected by as much as 75% because of all of the precautions that have been put in place about the spread of these type of viruses. That would put the 2021 death toll at around 30,000 or less. That would put us below a .015% /yr death rate and would be less than all the other causes of death on my list. However, I also believe we are all going to get this before it is all said and done. The whole purpose of the quarantine was to not overload the hospitals. It appears that has been accomplished. There are concoctions that will save most of those who get deathly ill. By 2021 there will more than likely be a vaccine or better yet an neutralising antibodies drug that has a protein that would prevent Covid-19 from attaching itself to a cell altogether. Unfortunately, I think this current breakout is merely preparing us for the true pandemic to come. Imagine if this virus were killing 10% or more of the population instead of a death rate of less than .03%.

Lastly, almost all of these viruses that inflict humanity are transmitted in the same way, most attack your respiratory system in one way or another, and most have many if not the same symptoms. Therefore, tracking and classifying each disease accurately is challenging. The resulting numbers may not be as accurate as desirable. However, I believe the numbers from the US are probably several orders of magnitude more accurate than those from the rest of the world. All of the numbers presented in this analysis are as close to being accurate as possible meaning I derived them from more than one source when available. I am not looking for accuracy here but am using approximations to understand how death from viral diseases compared to death from other circumstances that kill people.




History

Source: October 2013


This article introduces a series of invited papers in Antiviral Research marking the 10th anniversary of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), caused by a novel coronavirus that emerged in southern China in late 2002. Until that time, coronaviruses had not been recognized as agents causing severe disease in humans, hence, the emergence of the SARS-CoV came as a complete surprise. Research during the past ten years has revealed the existence of a diverse pool of coronaviruses circulating among various bat species and other animals, suggesting that further introductions of highly pathogenic coronaviruses into the human population are not merely probable, but inevitable. The recent emergence of another coronavirus causing severe disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), in humans, has made it clear that coronaviruses pose a major threat to human health, and that more research is urgently needed to elucidate their replication mechanisms, identify potential drug targets, and develop effective countermeasures.

What Is Covid-19 And Where Did It Come From?


Source: Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute

Researchers with the Smithsonian's Global Health Program have discovered six new coronaviruses in bats in Myanmar -- the first time these viruses have been detected anywhere in the world. Future studies will evaluate the potential for transmission across species to better understand the risks to human health. According to the authors, the newly discovered coronaviruses are not closely related to coronaviruses Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) or COVID-19. COVID-19 is a zoonotic disease, which means it is caused by an animal virus that has been picked up by humans. About 80 percent of viruses that exist are zoonotic viruses, and they work in both directions: animals can pass them to humans, and humans can pass them back to animals. Researchers have found that when bats contract these viruses, their particularly strong immune systems prevent them from getting sick or dying from the infections. According to viral experts, a coronavirus exactly like Covid-19 is NOT carried by bats even though they carry several coronaviruses. As a virus jumps from species to species, it mutates, which means that researchers won't see an exact copy in animals of the novel coronavirus found in humans. But scientists have found a 96 percent genetic match between the virus that's currently infecting humans and a coronavirus that is found in bats. Researchers believe that it is not likely that novel coronavirus spread directly from bats to humans, but that one or more animals at the market in Wuhan were infected by bats and served as an intermediate host in the transfer of the virus from bats to humans. It's thought that humans then came in contact with an infected animal, or animals, at the market. How exactly the virus was transmitted is still unknown, but some theories include a human consuming an infected animal or touching an infected animal during the butchering process. Scientists say it is highly likely that the virus came from bats but first passed through an intermediary animal in the same way that another coronavirus – the 2003 SARS (SARS-CoV-1) outbreak – moved from horseshoe bats to cat-like civets before infecting humans.

One animal implicated as an intermediary coronavirus host between bats and humans is the pangolin. However, no one knows for sure and this speculation at best.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature says they are “the most illegally traded mammal in the world” and are prized for their meat and the claimed medicinal properties of their scales. COVID-19 is not the first illness that has made the leap from bats to humans. The viruses that caused SARS, MERS, Ebola, Nipah, Hendra, and Marburg can all be traced back to bats, according to the UC Berkeley researchers, although all were spread through intermediate hosts. While animals and humans have traded diseases back and forth historically, recently, outbreaks that can be traced back to animals have become more common—partly, at least, due to human behavior.

Was this virus created in a lab? Most virologists say no. If this was a man made virus it would have characteristics of the tools scientists have for producing and manipulating a virus and Covid-19 does not have any of these tell tale signs. There is a lot of evidence that Covid-19 is a zoonotic virus and virtually no evidence that is was man made.

Did Covid-19 escape from the lab in Wuhan China? Some virologists say the Covid-19 virus is a new coronavirus and therefore did not exist prior to the breakout in 2019 / 2020. Covid-19 is remarkably similar to SARS-1 and is its cousin, but it is not exactly the same. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was first discovered in Asia in February 2003. The outbreak lasted approximately six months as the disease spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before it was stopped in July 2003. According to virologists, if humans were to have manipulated SARS-CoV-1 it would look different than the current Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2. They say they can tell the difference between a virus that has been altered by humans and one that has mutated naturally. Therefore, for these reasons and others, some virologists have ruled out creation in a lab by humans.

That said, there is also the theory that the virus did come from the Wuhan laboratory that has been experimenting specifically with bat coronavirus. The Chinese CDC published this headline 5/29/20 "The Chinese CDC now says the coronavirus didn't jump to people at the Wuhan wet market — instead, it was the site of a super-spreader event". This is not saying, however, that it came from a laboratory. It is saying that they could not find any life forms at the market that have the virus. I find it extremely suspicious at least that a human coronavirus outbreak started in the vicinity of a virus laboratory experimenting with the same type of viruses that are very similar to the coronavirus that is now killing people all over the world. A friend of mine sent me the following video and I think it explains the theory the best.






Source: What is a virus in the first place?

Viruses are neither dead or alive. They do not eat and most cannot reproduce on their own (RNA viruses). First seen as poisons, then as life-forms, then biological chemicals, viruses today are thought of as being in a gray area between living and nonliving: they cannot replicate on their own but can do so in truly living cells and can also affect the behavior of their hosts profoundly.

Further research by Stanley and others established that a virus consists of nucleic acids (DNA or RNA) enclosed in a protein coat that may also shelter viral proteins involved in infection. By that description, a virus seems more like a chemistry set than an organism. But when a virus enters a cell (called a host after infection), it is far from inactive. It sheds its coat, bares its genes and induces the cell’s own replication machinery to reproduce the intruder’s DNA or RNA and manufacture more viral protein based on the instructions in the viral nucleic acid. The newly created viral bits assemble and, voilà, more virus arises, which also may infect other cells.

These behaviors are what led many to think of viruses as existing at the border between chemistry and life. Virologists claim their dependence on host cells, viruses lead “a kind of borrowed life.” Interestingly, even though biologists long favored the view that viruses were mere boxes of chemicals, they took advantage of viral activity in host cells to determine how nucleic acids code for proteins: indeed, modern molecular biology rests on a foundation of information gained through viruses.

Bottom line, viruses depend on the host cell for the raw materials and energy necessary for nucleic acid synthesis, protein synthesis, processing and transport, and all other biochemical activities that allow the virus to multiply and spread. One might then conclude that even though these processes come under viral direction, viruses are simply nonliving parasites of living metabolic systems.

I have never seen, nor do I want to see, a zombie apocalypse movie but it is my understanding that the zombies came from a vaccine that was designed to combat a virus and the vaccine turned some into zombies. Now go to the link and see if someone may have read this before coming up with the zombie movies.



Source: Births & Deaths World Wide

Year 2018 2020 2030
World Population 7.594 B 7.796 B 8.506 B
       
Deaths 56.824 M 60 M 70 M
   
Births 141 M 141 M 141 M
       
Growth 84.176 M 81 M 71 M
More Births Than Deaths 2.5 2.4 2.0
Year 2018 2020 2030
World Population 7,594,000,000 7,796,500,000 8,506,500,000
       
Deaths 56,824,000 60,000,000 70,000,000
   
Births 141,000,000 141,000,000 141,000,000
       
Growth 84,176,000 81,000,000 71,000,000
More Births Than Deaths 2.5 2.4 2.0


Source: Causes of Death World Wide

Deaths
World Wide
Date Noted or In 2018 % Of World Population Past Total & Present per Year
Plague of Jestinian 541 - 542 100,000,000 48.5% tot
Black Plague 1346 - 1350 50,000,000 11.3% tot
World War II 1939 to 1945 60,000,000+ 3.0% tot
H1N1 1918 Spanish Flu 40,000,000+ 2.7% tot
Modern Plague 1894 - 1903 10,000,000 .6% tot
Cardiovascular Diseases 17,800,000 .234% = .00234/yr
Korean War 1950 to 1953 5,000,000 .19% tot
Cancers 9,600,000 .126% /yr
6th Cholera Pandemic 1889 - 1923 1,500,000 .115% tot
N2H2 Asian Flu 1957 2,000,000 .07% tot
Indonesian Tsunami 2004 227,898 .07% tot
Russian Flu 1889 - 1890 1,000,000 .057% tot
Respiratory Diseases 3,910,000 .051% /yr
Vietnam War 1955 to 1975 1,353,000 .04% tot
Lower Respiratory Infections 2,560,000 .034% /yr
Dementia 2,510,000 .033% /yr
Digestive Diseases 2,380,000 .031% /yr
Hong Kong Flu N3H2 1968 1,000,000 .029% tot
Neonatal Disorders 1,780,000 .023% /yr
Diarrheal Diseases 1,570,000 .021% /yr
5th Cholera Pandemic 982,000 .020% tot
Diabetes 1,370,000 .018% /yr
Liver Diseases 1,320,000 .017% /yr
Road Injuries 1,240,000 .016% /yr
Kidney Disease 1,230,000 .016% /yr
Tuberculosis 1,180,000 .016% /yr
HIV/AIDS 954,492 .013% /yr
Suicide 793,823 .010% /yr
Flu 646,000 .009% /yr
Malaria 619,827 .008% /yr
Homicide 405,346 .005% /yr
Covid-19 - 2020 400,000 .005% /yr
Parkinson Disease 340,639 .004% /yr
Drowning 295,210 .004% /yr
Meningitis 288,021 .004% /yr
Nutritional Deficiencies 269,997 .004% /yr
Malnutrition 231,771 .003% /yr
Maternal Disorders 193,639 .003% /yr
Alcohol Use Disorders 184,934 .002% /yr
Drug Use Disorders 166,613 .002% /yr
Measles 140,000 .002% /yr
Conflict 129,720 .002% /yr
Hepatitis 126,391 .002% /yr
Fire 120,632 .002% /yr
Poisonings 72,371 .001% /yr
Hot and Cold Exposure 53,350 .001% /yr
Terrorism 26,445 .000% /yr
Natural Disasters 9,603 .000% /yr

OK - I get it! The world data is probably off and often an educated guess. So, I am going to look at the numbers from the USA which are probably most accurate - not perfect - but way more accurate.

.037%
  2018 2019
USA Population 327,096,000 329,064,000
Native Born   278,800,000
Legal Noncitizens   13,100,000
Unauthorized Immigrants   11,300,000
Temporary Visas   1,700,000
Other   7,064,000
     
     
Deaths USA 2,839,205 2,835,038
Births USA 3,914,685 3,941,858
Delta 1,075,480 1,106,820‬
More Births Than Deaths 1.4 1.4
     
     
     
     
Deaths Date Noted or In 2018 % Of US Population Past Total & Present per Year
     
Civil War - US - 1861 to 1865 618,222 2.0% tot
H1N1 Spanish Flu - US - 1918 600,000+ .6% tot
World War II - US - 1939 to 1945 419,400 .3% tot
Vietnam War - US - 1955 to 1975 444,000 .232% tot
Heart Disease 655,381 .2% =0.002 /yr
Cancer 599,274 .182% /yr
Accidents/Unintentional Injuries 167,127 .051% /yr
H3N2 Hong Kong Flu - US - 1968 100,000 .05% tot
Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases 159,486 .048% /yr
Cardiovascular Diseases 147,810 .045% /yr
H2N2 Asian Flu - US -1957 70,000 .04% tot
Alzheimer Disease 122,019 .037% /yr
Covid-19 - US - 2020 110,000 .033% /yr
Diabetes 84,946 .026% /yr
Korean War - US - 1950 to 1953 33,686 .023% tot
Flu and Pneumonia 59,120 .018% /yr
Kidney Disease 51,386 .016% /yr
Suicide 48,344 .015% /yr






Source: Why can't we get rid of Covid-19 like we did other viral infections?

Below is a list of virual infections that are known to kill humans.

Virus
Name
Identified Vaccine Live
Virus
Vaccine?
Thought Eradicated USA H
Or
H&A
Inf
w/o
Sym
How
Spread?
Strains Virus
Type
Can the vaccine give you the desease
Smallpox 1796 1796 Y 1979 H NO A&R 4 variola virus
DNA
Y
Measles 1757 1953 Y 2000 H YES A&R 3 morbillivirus
RNA
Y
Rubella
(German Measles)
1962 1969 Y 2004 H YES A&R 4 rubella virus
RNA
Y
Polio 1908 1955 Y 1979 H YES F 3 poliovirus
RNA
Y
Mumps 1934 1967 Y - H YES A&R 1 Rubulavirus
RNA
?
Flu 1933 Y N - H&A YES A&R 4 Influenza
RNA
N
Covid-19 2020 N - - H&A YES A&R 7 SARS-CoV-2
RNA
-
Cold 2001 N - - H&A YES A&R 200+ rhinoviruses
RNA
-
Ebola 1976 2019 Y - H&A YES BF 5 zaire ebolavirus
RNA
N
FLU Y
Chickenpox 1875 1970's Y - H&A YES A&R 2 varicella zoster
DNA
Y
HIV/AIDS 1984 N - - H&A YES BF 60+ lentivirus
RNA
-

A&R= Aerosol and respiratory droplets. BF = Certain infected body fluids. F = Infected fecal - oral transmission through food, water, saliva. H = Human. H&A = Human and Animal.


Vaccines are intended to keep you from getting an infection as opposed to getting rid of an infection after you get it. For example, there is no treatment for smallpox. Once a person was infected it was impossible to treat them; one could only helplessly let the disease run its course. It might be possible that modern antiviral drugs would now allow a treatment of the disease if the disease still existed but since they have never been tested on infected humans, their effectiveness remains unknown.

I should also point out that most of the viruses we are dealing with these days are RNA viruses. RNA viruses have exceptionally high mutations rates because their replications enzymes are prone to errors when making new virus copies. RNA viruses cannot replicate on their own.

Polio...

Unlike the flu and Covid-19, smallpox, polio and measles infects ONLY humans and NOT animals.

Unlike smalpox, doctors have been working on ending polio for 31 years, initially hoping it would be completely gone by 2000. Now, due to difficulties tracking the disease, the target eradication date for the remaining type 1 strain is 2023.

Like the flu and Covid-19, humans are infected with the variola virus by coming in touch with droplets of a smallpox-infected patient. A healthy person can become infected if they inhale fluid droplets from another infected individual.

Smallpox and measles make their presence clearly and unambiguously known by a rash of pustules covering a patient’s entire body for smallpox and red bumpy rash for measles. You can’t be infected and contagious but still appear healthy. Unlike smalpox and measles 95% of thos infected with polio do not display any symptome with a few displaying generic symptoms like headache or fever. Therefore, tracking of polio is significantly more difficult.

While an infection of the variola minor virus would lead to death with a probability of less than one percent, the case fatality rate of the variola major virus has been estimated to be around 30%.

Unvaccionated, smalpox can kill between 1 and 4 per 1,000 population. For the US population in 2018 that would be between 327,000 and 1,300,000 people. It is estimated that the smalpox vaccine has saved roughly 200 million peoples lives.